Economic Vulnerability of Northern Canadian Mining to Winter Road Degradation Due to Climate Change
The majority of mining activity in Canada’s Northwest Territories (NWT) is inaccessible by permanent ground transportation infrastructure. Mines depend heavily on the seasonal Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR) for freight transportation – every year over 200,000 tonnes of supplies are hauled to the mines during a 60 day period. However, with prominent temperature warming trends in the Arctic, the TCWR operating season durations are becoming progressively shorter. As seasons decrease, less freight can be transported by truck and must shift to aviation - a more costly alternative. This research analyses the financial risk involved in the continued reliance on winter road infrastructure for mining activity. An economic model was developed to capture typical freight movements associated with the operation of Diavik, Ekati, and Snap Lake diamond mines. This model reflects the effects of climate change through the variation of two key factors impacting the traffic volume capacity of winter roads: season duration and ice capacity (maximum allowable truckload weight). The financial implications of hauling a fixed amount of freight under various scenarios of TCWR season durations and ice capacity are evaluated. It is assumed that any cargo that cannot be moved by ground transportation due to shorter seasons is flown to the mine sites. The findings of this analysis highlight that based on recent climate trends in the NWT, a typical TCWR season could become 10 days shorter by 2020, resulting in an operating cost increase of more than $40 million CAD for the Canadian diamond mines.
-
Supplemental Notes:
- Alternate title: Vulnerability of Northern Canadian Mining to Winter Road Degradation Due to Climate Change. This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ABE20 Transportation Economics.
-
Corporate Authors:
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC United States 20001 -
Authors:
- Borkovic, Jane
- Nolet, Alexandre
- Roorda, Matthew J
-
Conference:
- Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting
- Location: Washington DC, United States
- Date: 2015-1-11 to 2015-1-15
- Date: 2015
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 14p
- Monograph Title: TRB 94th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Bearing capacity; Climate change; Economic analysis; Freight traffic; Highway capacity; Ice; Mines; Seasonally frozen ground; Time duration; Winter
- Geographic Terms: Northern Canada
- Subject Areas: Economics; Environment; Freight Transportation; Highways; I10: Economics and Administration; I15: Environment;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01554262
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: 15-4641
- Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
- Created Date: Feb 26 2015 9:49AM