Evaluating Transit Ridership Overestimation in Mode Shift Modeling

This paper aims at investigating the over prediction of public transit ridership by traditional mode choice models estimated using revealed preference data. Five different types of models are estimated and analyzed, namely a traditional Revealed Preference (RP) data-based mode choice model, a hybrid mode choice model with a latent variable, a Stated Preference (SP) data-based mode switching model, a joint RP/SP mode switching model, and a hybrid mode switching model with a latent variable. Comparing the RP data-based mode choice model to the mode choice models with latent variable showed that the inclusion of behavioural factors (especially habit formation) has improved the models significantly. Moreover, the reasons why traditional mode choice models tend to over predict transit ridership were elucidated by revealing the role played by different transit level of service (LOS) attributes and their relative importance to mode switching decisions. It is clear that the SP data complements the RP information, resulting in improved forecasting performance. Findings of this study provide general guidelines for developing accurate transit ridership forecasting models.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AP025 Public Transportation Planning and Development.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Idris, Ahmed Osman
  • Nurul Habib, Khandker M
  • Shalaby, Amer
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2015-1-11 to 2015-1-15
• Date: 2015

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: 23p
• Monograph Title: TRB 94th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Choice models; Evaluation; Forecasting; Level of service; Modal shift; Mode choice; Revealed preferences; Ridership; Stated preferences
• Uncontrolled Terms: Overestimation
• Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01556616
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 15-1746
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Mar 10 2015 7:50AM