RELIABILITY ANALYSIS IN LAND USE-TRANSPORTATION PLANNING

BOTH THE FUTURE RIDERSHIP DEMAND FOR A PROPOSED TRANSIT SYSTEM AND THE EXPECTED TRAFFIC VOLUME ON A PLANNED HIGHWAY NETWORK CAN ONLY BE ESTIMATED AS A PREDICTION. BECAUSE OF THE NATURE OF THE FORECASTING PROCESS IN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM PLANNING, THE ADEQUACY OF A PLAN DESIGN CAN ONLY BE EXAMINED IN THE FACE OF UNCERTAINTY. IN OTHER WORDS, THE EVALUATION OF PLANNING RELIABILITY IS MOSTLY CONCERNED WITH THE ANALYSIS OF UNCERTAINITIES INVOLVED WITH THE FORECASTING PROCESS. WITH THE APPLICATION OF A PROBABILITY THEORY, A RATIONAL PROCEDURE CAN BE DEVELOPED TO EXAMINE THE EXTENT OF UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED IN A PARTICULAR DEMAND FORECAST. THEN, A DECISION THEORETIC APPROCH CAN BE ADOPTED TO DETERMINE THE OPTIMAL LEVEL OF A DESIGN PARAMETER THAT IS TO BE CONSIDERED IN SYSTEMS PLANNING. AS AN EXAMPLE, THE PROBLEM OF FORECASTING THE TOTAL POPULATION IN THE 7 COUNTIES OF THE SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN REGION WAS CONSIDERED. THE ANALYSIS WAS PERFORMED IN 2 STEPS. IN THE FIRST STEP, THE RELIABILITY OF POPULATION PROJECTIONS OBTAINED FROM THE APPLICATION OF VARIOUS TECHNIQUES WAS TESTED. IN THE SECOND STEP, ESTIMATES WERE PREPARED TO EVALUATE THE RELIABILITY OF FORECASTING IN A PARTICULAR COUNTY. SUBSEQUENTLY, AN OPTIMAL DECISION WAS MADE REGARDING THE LEVEL OF FUTURE DESIGN-YEAR POPULATION FOR EACH COUNTY. THE EXAMPLE DISCUSSED HERE IS A SIMPLE ONE; IN REALITY, HOWEVER, THE PLANNING AND DESIGN DECISIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH MULTIPLE VARIABLES, AND A RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MADE BY OPTIMIZING THE COMBINED EXPECTED UTILITY. FURTHERMORE, MORE RELIABLE COST DATA ARE REQUIRED TO DEVELOP ASSOCIATED UTILITY FUNCTIONS. THE PROCEDURE OUTLINED IN THE PAPER PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A PLANNER TO ARRIVE AT AN OPTIMUM LEVEL OF DESIGN-YEAR POPULATION. SUCH A PROCEDURE CAN BE AN EXTREMELY USEFUL TOOL IN THE OVERALL LAND USE-TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS. /AUTHOR/

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Pagination: pp 157-158
  • Monograph Title: Transportation demand and analysis techniques
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00241799
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Feb 23 1973 12:00AM