The use of antifragility heuristics in transport planning

Long term, there appears to be a number of new transport technologies that will potentially have “game changing” effects that cannot be practically accommodated in our current transport models, yet may have significant implications on immediate investment decisions. Taleb (2011) outlines a heuristic model for making investment decisions in situations that are open to significant randomness. The objective of this study is to understand whether this model may be used in transport planning and if so, how it would be approached. The approach of this study will be to use the model changes in responses with respect to treatments and identify current convex and concave patterns within the Perth metropolitan region. A philosophical discussion will also be undertaken considering the use of such an approach in conjunction with more conventional planning approaches.

• Authors:
  • Isted, R
• Conference:
  • Australian Institute of Traffic Planning and Management (AITPM) National Conference, 2014, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
• Publication Date: 2014-8

Language

• English

Media Info

• Pagination: 10p
• Serial:
  • Issue Number: 3

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Decision making; Investments; Mathematical models; Planning; Transportation; Transportation planning; Urban areas
• Uncontrolled Terms: Policy and planning
• Geographic Terms: Australia; Perth (Australia)
• ATRI Terms: Decision process; Investment; Modelling; Transport planning; Urban area
• ITRD Terms: 2248: Decision process
• Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01540103
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: ARRB
• Files: ITRD, ATRI
• Created Date: Oct 10 2014 9:40AM