MONTE CARLO SIMULATION OF OIL SLICK MOVEMENTS

A random walk analogy and a time series model are described to simulate, by the Monte Carlo Method, the movement of an instantaneous oil slick under the influence of deterministic water currents and random wind effects. The technique is based on model sampling or repeated trials. Therefore, the slick motion is imitated by the movement of a large number of particles, each of which undergoes a sequence of deterministic steps due to a prescribed water current field and a different sequence of random steps due to a random wind field. This enables one to estimate the probability distribution of the position of the oil slick centroid and nearshore pollution after a spill occurs. An illustrative example based on some empirical formulas and actual field data from Delaware Bay is given. Of the two models on which the simulation is based, it is judged that the time series simulation model represents a more realistic and conservative approach.

• Corporate Authors:

  American Society of Civil Engineers

  345 East 47th Street
  New York, NY  United States  10017-2398
• Authors:
  • Tayfum, M A
  • Wang, H
• Publication Date: 1973-8

Media Info

• Pagination: p. 307-324
• Serial:
  • Journal of Waterways, Harbors & Coast Eng Div
  • Volume: 99
  • Issue Number: WW3
  • Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Flow; Oil spills; Wind
• Old TRIS Terms: Oil spill behavior; Wind induced flow
• Subject Areas: Environment; Marine Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00048116
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: American Society of Civil Engineers
• Report/Paper Numbers: 9930 Proceeding
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Oct 31 1973 12:00AM