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PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR HURRICANE EFFECTS

A method providing for the indirect development of probability functions relating magnitude-recurrence interval for hurricane effects over specified time intervals is outlined and discussed. Although the method is suitably applicable to sites where data from historic records is insufficient to obtain effect magnitude-recurrence interval information, such data would necessarily improve the reliability of the analytical predictions. The development includes a stochastic model for occurences around sites. For a given hurricane occurrence, a hurricane occurrence model is combined with distribution for hurricane wind. The author shows that if hurricane occurrences follow a periodic Poisson law, then exceedances of given magnitudes of hurricane effects also obey a periodic Poisson law. An example at a specific site (Port Aransas, Texas) is used to illustrate the development of maximum hurricane wind probabilities. The author concludes that a periodic Poisson distribution best described hurricanes on the Texas coast, and that data further imply that Texas hurricanes tend to follow a cyclic trend with a period of about 33 years.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Presented at the December 10-12, 1969, ASCE Conference, Civil Engineering in the Oceans II, held at Miami Beach, Florida.
  • Corporate Authors:

    American Society of Civil Engineers

    345 East 47th Street
    New York, NY  United States  10017-2398
  • Authors:
    • Russell, L R
  • Publication Date: 1971-2

Media Info

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00048050
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: National Maritime Research Center, Galveston
  • Report/Paper Numbers: 7886 Proceeding
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Oct 31 1973 12:00AM