Tools for an Extended Risk Assessment for Ropax Ship-Ship Collision

This paper presents an extended risk assessment for a ship-ship collision where the struck ship is a RoPax vessel in an open sea area. The assessment combines state-of-the-art engineering models for assessing probabilities of events and their consequences in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). The overall model rationale is briefly outlined and abridged results are shown. The main focus of the paper, however, is the application of a relatively recently proposed uncertainty/bias-based risk perspective. In particular, special attention is given to the inadequacy of the BBN to express all decision-relevant uncertainty. The applied risk perspective highlights that probabilities do not fully account for uncertainty in terms of the strength of the knowledge base for making these probability statements, i.e. for evidential uncertainty. Furthermore, probabilities stemming from calculations using results of engineering models are conditional to the underlying assumptions and simplifications in these engineering models, which may be value-laden. This is reflected through a qualitative assessment of evidential biases. As a novelty, a qualitative analysis of evidential uncertainty and bias is proposed using a sensitivity-uncertainty-bias matrix triplet and an uncertainty-bias justification table, supplementing the BBN-based quantification of uncertainty.

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Web
  • Pagination: pp 2292-2302
  • Monograph Title: Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01532702
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 9780784413609
  • Files: TRIS, ASCE
  • Created Date: Jul 7 2014 3:03PM