Analysis of the Robustness of Critical Infrastructures Within a Multistate Systems-of-Systems Framework in the Presence of Epistemic Uncertainties

In this paper, the authors look at the robustness of connected critical infrastructures under a systems-of-systems framework, taking into account: (1) the dependencies and interdependencies among the components of a critical infrastructure and between different critical infrastructures, respectively; (2) the variability of the performance of each component by means of a multistate model; and, (3) the epistemic uncertainty in the transition probability between different component states by means of probability intervals. The authors adopt the Goal Tree Success Tree - Dynamic Master Logic Diagram for system modelling and perform a quantitative assessment of the systems-of-systems performance by Monte Carlo simulation. The authors illustrate the approach by way of a simplified case study consisting of two interdependent infrastructures (electric power system and a gas network) and a supervisory control and data acquisition system connected to the gas network.

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Web
  • Pagination: pp 715-724
  • Monograph Title: Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01532694
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 9780784413609
  • Files: TRIS, ASCE
  • Created Date: Jul 7 2014 3:01PM