THE SIMULATION OF RESIDENTIAL GROWTH IN THE MONTREAL REGION

THE SIMULATION APPROACH WAS CHOSEN TO ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP A MORE BASIC METHOD OF PREDICTING RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. A SYSTEM SIMULATION GROWTH IS ESTABLISHED WITH THESE COMPONENTS, EACH REPRODUCING A PARTICULAR ASPECT OF THE PROCESS. THE FIRST COMPONENT MODELS CHANGE-OF-RESIDENCE MOVES OCCURRING FROM A CHANGE OF ACCESSIBILITY TO ATTRACTION CENTRES, THE SECOND MODELS MOVES OCCURRING FROM THE CONSTRUCTION OF SINGLE-DETACHED HOUSING UNITS, AND THE THIRD SIMPLY DISTRIBUTES TO THE VARIOUS ZONES NEW HOUSEHOLDS. THE GROWTH FOR A GIVEN ZONE DURING A TIME PERIOD IS THE SUMMATION OF ALL MOVES OCCURRING UNDER THE THREE COMPONENTS. THE SYSTEM DEALS WITH ELEMENTS OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME, ETHNIC GROUP AND TYPE OF DWELLING UNIT /APARTMENT OR SINGLE- DETACHED/. VACANT SPACE IS CONVERTED INTO THE NUMBER OF DWELLING UNITS OF EACH TYPE WHICH CAN BE ACCOMMODATED. EMPLOYMENT CENTRES ARE USED AS ATTRACTION CENTRES. TRAVEL TIMES ARE ESTABLISHED FOR BOTH DWELLING TYPES. THE MODEL WAS TESTED USING DATA FROM THE MONTREAL REGION FOR THE YEARS 1951 AND 1961. WHILE VARIOUS ABRIDGMENTS HAD TO BE MADE TO THE MODEL FOR LACK OF PROPER DATA, THE RESULTS OBTAINED TEND TO SUPPORT THE SOUNDNESS OF THE SIMULATION APPROACH TO REPRODUCING RESIDENTIAL GROWTH.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • 62 Pp, 12 FIG, 2 TAB, 8 REF
  • Corporate Authors:

    Quebec Department Roads, Quebec /Can

    ,    

    Pennsylvania State University, University Park

    Bureau of Highway Traffic
    University Park, PA  USA  16802
  • Authors:
    • Larouche, P
  • Publication Date: 1965-2

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00239052
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: CANADIAN GOOD ROADS ASSOCIATION
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Mar 20 1994 12:00AM