ARE GRAVITY AND INTERCHANGE MODELS A VALID TECHNIQUE FOR PLANNING REGIONAL TRANSPORT?

IT IS ESSENTIAL FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF PLANNING TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES TO HAVE SOME MEANS OF PRODUCING MODERATELY ACCURATE FORECAST OF FUTURE TRAFFIC. IT IS THEREFORE FUNDAMENTAL FOR THE PLANNING OF FUTURE TRANSPORT FACILITIES AND THE DESIGN OF TRANSPORT POLICIES THAT A SATISFACTORY SOLUTION TO THE QUESTION OF TRAFFIC FORECASTING MODELS SHOULD BE FOUND. THIS PAPER INTRODUCES THE GRAVITY AND INTERACTANCE MODELS WHICH ATTEMPT TO EXPLAIN AND PREDICT PASSENGER AND FREIGHT TRAFFIC IN TOTAL OR BY INDIVIDUAL MODE OF TRANSPORT. THE REMAINDER OF THE PAPER ATTEMPTS TO TEST THE VALIDITY OF THESE MODELS BY TESTING THEM IN TERMS OF THE FOLLOWING CRITERIA: (1) ARE THE HYPOTHESES REASONABLE, (2) ARE THE MODELS LOGICALLY CONSISTENT, AND (3) DO THE MODELS FIT THE FACTS. THE GENERAL CONCLUSION FROM THE ANALYSIS IS THAT THE GRAVITY AND INTERACTANCE MODELS DO NOT PROVIDE A VALID MEANS OF PRODUCING TRAFFIC FORECASTS IN A REGIONAL ENVIRONMENT. OTHER METHODS OF TRAFFIC FORECASTING AND SUGGESTIONS FOR THE MOST PROMISING AREAS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH ARE DISCUSSED. /AUTHOR/

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Vol 20, No 1, PP 93-110
  • Authors:
    • Heggie, I G
  • Publication Date: 1969-3

Media Info

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00241207
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Sep 2 1994 12:00AM