Transportation Futures: Policy Scenarios for Achieving Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must be reduced by 50% to 80% by 2050 in order to limit global temperature increase to 2°C. This research analyzes three scenarios: changes in the perceived price of travel; land-use intensification; and, increases in transit use. Elasticity estimates are derived using an activity-based travel model for the state of California and broadly representative of the U.S. The VISION model is used to forecast changes in technology and fuel options for the U.S., providing a life cycle GHG forecast for the road transportation sector. Results suggest that aggressive policy action is needed, especially pricing policies,as well as technical innovations. Medium- and heavy-duty vehicles are in particular need of additional fuel or technology-based GHG reductions.

  • Record URL:
  • Supplemental Notes:
    • This research was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Transportation, University Transportation Centers program.
  • Corporate Authors:

    Mineta National Transit Research Consortium

    San José State University
    210 North 4th Street
    San José, CA  United States  95112

    California Department of Transportation

    Division of Research and Innovation
    1227 O Street, MS-83
    Sacramento, CA  United States  94273-0001

    Research and Innovative Technology Administration

    1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
    Washington, DC  United States  20590
  • Authors:
    • Kay, Andrew I
    • Noland, Robert B
    • Rodier, Caroline
  • Publication Date: 2014-3


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Edition: Final Report
  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 44p

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01530296
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: CA-MNTRC-14-1149, MNTRC Report 12-11
  • Contract Numbers: DTRT12-G-UTC21
  • Created Date: Apr 3 2014 11:43AM