Spatial Analysis of County Level Crash Risk in New Jersey Using Severity-Based Hierarchical Bayesian Models
This study presents an innovative hierarchical Bayesian model for spatial modeling of county level crashes in New Jersey. First, the model is estimated using raw crash counts. Then, weights are applied to crashes with different severities to obtain a weighted crash count. The goal in incorporating severities in the spatial model is to demonstrate the importance of representing spatial variation of crashes as well as their severity. As a contribution to existing literature, crash rates are also analyzed by road type. Finally, crash rate maps are developed based on modeling results to visualize the effects of spatial covariates. The results of the study indicate that the most influential covariate for the crashes is the road curvature, followed by roadway mileage and roadway defects. It is also found that it is possible to represent the crash risk better by applying severity weights to the individual crashes. The developed crash rate maps can help transportation professionals on identifying and ranking the locations at an aggregate level, which requires closer attention.
-
Supplemental Notes:
- This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ANB20 Safety Data, Analysis and Evaluation.
-
Corporate Authors:
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC United States 20001 -
Authors:
- Demiroluk, Sami
- Ozbay, Kaan
-
Conference:
- Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting
- Location: Washington DC
- Date: 2014-1-12 to 2014-1-16
- Date: 2014
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 19p
- Monograph Title: TRB 93rd Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Counties; Crash rates; Crash severity; Highway factors in crashes; Highway safety; Spatial analysis
- Geographic Terms: New Jersey
- Subject Areas: Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I82: Accidents and Transport Infrastructure;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01518716
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: 14-5127
- Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
- Created Date: Mar 20 2014 1:39PM