Demand Adaptation towards New Transport Modes: Case of High Speed Rail in Taiwan

This study aims to explain the factors affecting ridership changes on the relatively new Taiwan High Speed Rail system (THSR). The analysis is based on monthly ridership data from January 2007 to December 2012. The authors also discuss the impact of THSR on competing modes such as air demand. Econometric time-series models are then used to specify the demand adaptation controlling for socio demographic changes, specific events and economic developments. Firstly a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was applied; showing that the ridership thrives and slightly underestimates the trend prediction after 2012. Secondly, to specify the impact of explanatory variables, a first order moving average model was fitted. The results suggest that population, Chinese New Year summer vacation, and fuel price have a positive effect while unemployment and car ownership tend to reduce the THSR ridership. The authors further include as separate factor “month since operation” start and show that this factor is significant. Implications for general equilibrium modelling for new transport systems are discussed.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AR010 Intercity Passenger Rail.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Li, Yeun-Touh
  • Schmöcker, Jan-Dirk
  • Fujii, Satoshi
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC
  • Date: 2014-1-12 to 2014-1-16
• Date: 2014

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 17p
• Monograph Title: TRB 93rd Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air travel; Competition; Economic development; High speed rail; Mode choice; Ridership; Time series analysis
• Uncontrolled Terms: Autoregressive integrated moving average models
• Geographic Terms: Taiwan
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Railroads; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01516062
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 14-1200
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 27 2014 9:04AM