Short-Term Prediction for the Occurrence Probability of Traffic Incidents in Freeways

This paper presents a simple method for freeway traffic incidents short term prediction based on the traffic flow theory. A model is proposed to estimate the probability of traffic incidents occurrence, which is achieved by analyzing traffic flow data from two neighboring detectors. The proposed model indicates that the probability of traffic incident occurrence is positively related to two terms: a) the ratio of the upstream traffic density to the steady traffic density, and b) the speed difference between the upstream traffic and the downstream traffic. The empirical data from Dutch motorways is used to calibrate the model. This method appears promising for the application in the on-line traffic incidents predictions in the future.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.1061/41039(345)277
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/9780784410394
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2009 American Society of Civil Engineers.
• Corporate Authors:

  American Society of Civil Engineers

  1801 Alexander Bell Drive
  Reston, VA  United States  20191-4400
• Authors:
  • Wang, Hao
  • Wang, Wei
• Conference:
  • Second International Conference on Transportation Engineering
  • Location: Chengdu , China
  • Date: 2009-7-25 to 2009-7-27
• Publication Date: 2009-7

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: References;
• Pagination: pp 1673-1678
• Monograph Title: International Conference on Transportation Engineering 2009

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Freeways; Incident detection; Probability; Traffic density; Traffic flow; Traffic incidents
• Geographic Terms: Netherlands
• Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01526865
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 9780784410394
• Files: TRIS, ASCE
• Created Date: May 29 2014 10:16AM