An Expected Consequence Approach to Route Choice in the Maritime Transportation of Crude Oil

This article outlines an expected consequence (EC) approach to route choice for maritime transportation of crude oil. The authors note that maritime transport is the primary link for global crude oil movement with the accompanying risk of both minor and major oil spills. They use the EC approach to assess oil-spill risk from intercontinental transportation of crude oil that not only adheres to the safety guidelines specified by the International Maritime Organization but also outlines a new technique that makes use of coarse global data to estimate accident probabilities. They compare their proposed estimation technique to four cost-of-spill models from the literature, using a realistic size problem as a case study (maritime transport of crude oil from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Mexico). They report that a shorter route may not necessarily be less risky and an understanding of the inherent oil-spill risk of different routes could assist tanker routing decisions. For a given route, the risk associated with oil spill depends on both the density of traffic and the cleanup costs in different regions along the given route. The authors also consider the negotiations over insurance premiums between the transport company and the not-for-profit prevention and indemnity clubs. Finally, we note that only the linear model should be used with one of the three nonlinear cost-of-spill models for evaluating tanker routes.


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  • Accession Number: 01529898
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Nov 11 2013 9:30AM