Use of Kloeden et al's relative risk curves and confidence limits to estimate crashes attributable to low and high level speeding

Kloeden et al.’s relative risk relationships have been used in conjunction with vehicle speed measurements to estimate the relative frequency of casualty crashes associated with each speed range. Risks associated with high speeds had generally been ignored because of uncertainty about the relationships. This study estimates the relative crash frequencies using the confidence limits for the relative risks on urban 60 km/h limit roads. The estimated relative risks were also adjusted to reflect the increased probability of serious injury outcomes associated with increased speed. The concept of “population attributable risk” was used to estimate the fraction of crashes attributable to speeding in each illegal speed range. The estimated attributable fraction of casualty crashes was found to be higher for speeds above 80 km/h than speeds in the 60 to 70 km/h range, and higher again when the attributable fractions for serious casualty crashes were estimated. However, the results need to be tempered by the wide confidence limits associated with Kloeden et al’s relative risk relationship at high speeds on 60 km/h limit roads.


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  • Accession Number: 01495576
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: ARRB
  • Files: ITRD, ATRI
  • Created Date: Oct 17 2013 10:07AM