Estimating the Number of Tanker Collisions in the Gulf of Finland in 2015

This paper presents a model for estimating the number of ship-ship collisions for future traffic scenarios. The modeling is based on an approach where the number of collisions in an area is estimated as a product of the number of collision candidates, i.e. the number of collisions of two ships, if no evasive maneuvers were made, and a causation probability describing the probability of making no evasive maneuvers. However, the number of collisions is presented as a combination of binomially distributed random variables. The model is applied for the assessment of tanker collision frequency in the Gulf of Finland in 2015. 2015 traffic is modeled as three alternative scenarios each having a certain probability of occurrence. The number of collisions can be presented either for each scenario, or as an estimate including the uncertainty in future marine traffic development by taking into account all scenarios and their occurrence probabilities.

• Record URL:
  http://www.transnav.eu/Article_Estimating_the_Number_of_Tanker_,23,373.html
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/20836473
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Copyright © 2012 Hanninen, M. et al
• Authors:
  • Hänninen, Maria
  • Kujala, Pentti
  • Ylitalo, J
  • Kuronen, J
• Publication Date: 2012-9

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 367-373
• Serial:
  • TransNav, the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation
  • Volume: 6
  • Issue Number: 3
  • Publisher: Akademia Morska w Gdyni
  • ISSN: 2083-6473
  • EISSN: 2083-6481
  • Serial URL: http://www.transnav.eu/
• Publication flags:

  Open Access (libre)

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Crash rates; Crash risk forecasting; Estimation theory; Tankers; Water transportation crashes
• Geographic Terms: Gulf of Finland
• Subject Areas: Marine Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors; I81: Accident Statistics;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01496241
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Oct 24 2013 9:34AM