A model forecast for Amazon waterways: web tool to support river transportation

Modelagem de previsão de navegabilidade em rios da Amazônia: ferramenta web de suporte aos usuários do transporte aquaviário

In the Amazon, growth was observed in recent decades, with social, economic and environmental impacts caused by decrease in river levels. The drought events in the region in the years 2010 and 2005 resulted in serious problems. On October 25, 2010, the Rio Negro reached the minimum quota of 13.63 meters, 1 inch less than the largest recorded in the history of measurements, which was 13.64 on October 30, 1963. At various times of drought a state of emergency is declared in many cities, due to the isolation caused by the interruption in the mobility and accessibility, because in most of these the only form of access is by river transportation. Thus, aiming to support the prevention of adverse effects of the "isolation in the Amazon," hydrologic modeling was held to predict the dynamics of changes in the dimensions of the rivers. The tool is based on statistical model ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average), and how variable the model analysis and support rivers levels are. The tool allowed the processing, analysis and generation of information to forecast river levels and consequently on the craft travel planning, using a web system to provide access to the model.


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  • Accession Number: 01492642
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Aug 23 2013 9:46PM