Accuracy of congestion pricing forecasts

This paper compares forecast effects of the Stockholm congestion charges with actual outcomes. The most important concerns during the design of the congestion charging scheme were the traffic reduction in bottlenecks, the increase in public transport ridership, the decrease of vehicle kilometres in the city centre, and potential traffic effects on circumferential roads. Comparisons of forecasts and actual outcomes show that the transport model predicted all of these factors well enough to allow planners to draw correct conclusions regarding the design and preparations for the scheme. The one major shortcoming was that the static assignment network model was unable to predict the substantial reductions of queuing times. The authors conclude that the transport model worked well enough to be useful as decision support, performing considerably better than unaided “experts’ judgments”, but that results must be interpreted taking the model’s limitations into account. The positive experiences from the Stockholm congestion charges hence seem to be transferable to other cities in the sense that if a charging system is forecast to have beneficial effects on congestion, then this is most likely true.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2013.04.004
• Record URL:
  http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856413001006
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/09658564
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Abstract reprinted with permission from Elsevier.
• Authors:
  • Eliasson, Jonas
  • Börjesson, Maria
  • van Amelsfort, Dirk
  • Brundell-Freij, Karin
  • Engelson, Leonid
• Publication Date: 2013-6

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 34-46
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
  • Volume: 52
  • Issue Number: 0
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0965-8564
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09658564

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Congestion pricing; Forecasting; Validation
• Geographic Terms: Stockholm (Sweden)
• Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning; I73: Traffic Control;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01491726
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Sep 3 2013 12:28PM