Forecasting Paratransit Services Demand – Review and Recommendations

Travel demand forecasting tools for Florida’s paratransit services are outdated, utilizing old national trip generation rate generalities and simple linear regression models. In its guidance for the development of mandated Transportation Disadvantaged Service Plans (TDSP), the Florida Commission for the Transportation Disadvantaged (CTD) refers transit planners to the May 1993 “Methodology Guidelines for Forecasting TD Transportation Demand at the County Level” to develop forecasts of transportation disadvantaged populations. This report examines the current demand forecasting procedure, examines samples of other forecasting methods, and details critical factors that should be considered in addressing the development of a new paratransit demand forecasting model. The report concludes with the development of an updated paratransit service demand model and details its application. A dynamic model spreadsheet was developed which requires relatively simple and minimal data inputs by the end user.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.5038/CUTR-NCTR-RR-2011-06
• 
• Summary URL:
  http://ftp.fdot.gov/file/d/FTP/FDOT%20LTS/CO/research/Completed_Proj/Summary_PTO/FDOT-BDK85-977-34-sum.pdf
• Record URL:
  http://ftp.fdot.gov/file/d/FTP/FDOT%20LTS/CO/research/Completed_Proj/Summary_PTO/FDOT-BDK85-977-34-rpt.pdf
• Supplemental Notes:
  • This document was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Transportation, University Transportation Centers Program.
• Corporate Authors:

  National Center for Transit Research

  Center for Urban Transportation Research, University of South Florida
  4202 East Fowler Avenue, CUT 100
  Tampa, FL  United States  33620

  Florida Department of Transportation

  Research Center
  605 Suwannee Street MS-30
  Tallahassee, FL  United States  32399-0450

  Florida Commission for the Transportation Disadvantaged

  605 Suwannee Street, MS-49
  Tallahassee, FL  United States  32399

  Research and Innovative Technology Administration

  1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Authors:
  • Goodwill, Jay A
  • Joslin, Ann
• Publication Date: 2013-6

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Edition: Final Report
• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 55p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Forecasting; Methodology; Paratransit services; Transportation disadvantaged persons; Travel demand
• Geographic Terms: Florida
• Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01484717
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: NCTR 77938/BDK85 977-34, U.S. DOT DTRS98-G-0032
• Contract Numbers: BDK85 977-34
• Files: UTC, TRIS, RITA, ATRI, USDOT, STATEDOT
• Created Date: Jun 20 2013 1:14PM