A microsimulation model of regulation of transport in Czech cities: Does uncertainty matter?

This paper introduces a microsimulation model with the purpose of simulating impacts of selected policy measures on transport behaviour, induced external effects of air pollution, and public finance including the cost of tax distortions. The model consists of a microeconomic model of transport behaviour of households, of a cost model of public transport agencies, and of the external-cost module. The final model can address the impacts of changes in passenger transport prices on fuel consumption, external effects of air pollution, household welfare, and public finance. The components of the model are estimated on available micro data for the five largest cities in the Czech Republic. The paper takes seriously the uncertainty in statistically estimated parameter values and describes appropriate techniques to deal with it. This enables us not only to characterize the expected value of the welfare consequences, but also quantiles of the distribution and hence some risk-averse measures. Moreover, we are able to find those model parameters, which have the most serious impact on the simulation results. These findings can be useful for informing stakeholders about relative merit of various research directions.

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  • Corporate Authors:

    Technische Universitaet Wien (Oesterreich). Institut fuer Verkehrswissenschaften

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  • Authors:
    • Bruha, Jan
    • Bruhova-Foltynova, Hana
  • Publication Date: 2012

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: Tables;
  • Pagination: pp 33-50
  • Monograph Title: WCTRS – SIG10 Workshop. Emerging Urban Transport Policies towards Sustainability
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01484181
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Kuratorium für Verkehrssicherheit (KfV)
  • ISBN: 978-3-9503375-0-1
  • Files: ITRD
  • Created Date: Jun 18 2013 7:49AM