Road Safety in Bits and Pieces: For a Better Understanding of the Development of the Number of Road Fatalities

This thesis describes a method to get a better understanding of the development of traffic safety. Forecasts and analysis of the annual number of road casualties are important tools for outlining road safety policies. The analyses helps to understand road safety developments and this involves the relation between the observed annual numbers of casualties and external factors. There have been developments in distance traveled, safety measures and other factors such as weather and light conditions in the past. In this thesis the author gives insight in these relations and enables the evaluation of past policies to estimate the expected future number of casualties for different scenarios for the development of distance traveled and road safety programs. The results can be used to adjust road safety policies or to develop new policies. Common road safety models used to describe the development of the past or future number of road casualties, often treated the total (aggregated) annual number of casualties as a dependent variable. A straightforward time dependent model for total risk (the total number of crashes per total distance traveled) was often used. Statistical techniques were used to optimize these models, with or without additional explanatory variables, such as alcohol consumption. The focus of this thesis lies not on the total, but on the subdivision (stratification) of the crash data and the data of distance traveled. Different subgroups with different risks (like different travel modes, different age groups and combinations of both) are modeled separately. It is shown that these groups often have different risks and different trends in distance traveled.


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 219p

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01484863
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 9789073946118
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jun 17 2013 9:50AM