From destination prediction to route prediction

A prediction of a vehicle's route would be useful for giving the driver advance warnings and alerts about upcoming situations and opportunities. This paper presents a new algorithm for predicting a driver's route based on a probabilistic prediction of the driver's destination. For each candidate destination, the route prediction algorithm plans a route to that destination. Roads on these routes accumulate the probabilities of their respective destinations, giving higher probabilities to roads along the way to higher probability destinations. The algorithm is based on a single parameter that characterizes how efficiently a driver drives. Once this parameter is computed, it does not require storing a history of trips, and it works in places a driver has never visited. The authors test the algorithm on 100 routes recorded with the Global Positioning System (GPS) and show that the route prediction quickly narrows down the future route to a small fraction of the road network. The algorithm is also compared to two other algorithms to show how it performs better.


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  • Accession Number: 01483315
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jun 4 2013 10:14AM