Hazard-Based Analysis of Highway Project Development Times

Transport agencies around the world recognize the importance of on-time on-budget delivery of highway projects and understand the need for an efficient transport development process. Past studies of highway project duration and cost estimation were focused on construction, and few studies have focused on preconstruction project delivery from an agency’s perspective. This paper proposes the use of hazard-based duration models for investigating the potential risk factors that could affect project development time from planning to letting. A database containing over 35 years of highway project data from the state of Indiana was used to develop appropriate models. Of the three model forms (Weibull, Weibull with gamma heterogeneity, and log-logistic) considered in the paper, it was found that the log-logistic model is the most appropriate for modeling project development time. For each work category (pavement, bridge, and road/interchange projects), risk factors were identified, and their influences on project development time (and consequently, on letting time) were investigated. The developed hazard-based duration models were further applied to demonstrate their ability to predict expected project development time for delivery and the project-related factors that influence this duration, thereby providing the agency with a useful interpretation of associated delivery risks.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000422
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/oclc/8674831
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Copyright © 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers
• Authors:
  • Ong, G P
  • Fitzpatrick, V
  • Labi, S
  • Sinha, K C
• Publication Date: 2012-10

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 1259-1268
• Serial:
  • Journal of Transportation Engineering
  • Volume: 138
  • Issue Number: 10
  • Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
  • ISSN: 0733-947X
  • Serial URL: https://ascelibrary.org/journal/jtepbs

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Construction projects; Project management; Risk management; Road construction; Time duration
• Uncontrolled Terms: Hazard based duration models
• Geographic Terms: Indiana
• Subject Areas: Administration and Management; Construction; Highways; I50: Construction and Supervision of Construction;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01448701
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, ASCE
• Created Date: Oct 8 2012 8:47AM