METHOD FOR ESTIMATING POTENTIAL INCREASES IN TRAFFIC VOLUMES BASED ON O-D SURVEY DATA FROM A MIDWESTERN CITY

AN ESTIMATE WAS MADE, USING HOME INTERVIEW DATA, OF THE POSSIBLE INCREASE IN TRIP GENERATION IN A COMMUNITY IF THE NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS REMAINED CONSTANT OVER A PERIOD OF TIME DURING WHICH THE VEHICLE OWNERSHIP BY HOUSEHOLDS AND/OR THE INTENSITY OF VEHICLE USE BY HOUSEHOLDS INCREASED. THE AVERAGES FOR HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS WERE CORRELATED BY ZONES WITH THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF VEHICULAR TRIPS PER ZONE. A VARIANCE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ZONES WERE SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER STATISTICALLY THAN THE DIFFERENCES WITHIN ZONES IN RESPECT TO TRAFFIC GENERATION. THE PROPORTION OF POTENTIAL TRIP MAKERS IN HOUSEHOLDS WHO MAKE TRIPS APPEARED TO BE THE BEST MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ZONES IN TRAFFIC PRODUCTION. THE FAMILY IS A SIGNIFICANT UNIT OF TRAFFIC GENERATION. A STATISTICAL FACTOR ANALYSIS WAS MADE OF ABOUT 30 VARIABLES WHICH MIGHT BE LINKED TO TRAFFIC GENERATION BY HOUSEHOLDS. THE FOUR MAJOR FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH TRIP GENERATION WHICH WERE DERIVED WERE A TRAFFIC VOLUME FACTOR, A TRIP PURPOSE FACTOR, A DISTANCE FACTOR AND A TIME OF TRIP FACTOR. SOCIO-ECONOMIC INFLUENCES ARE THE BASIC SOURCE OF VARIATIONS IN TRAFFIC PRODUCTION IN A COMMUNITY. A SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCALE COMBINING OCCUPATIONAL LEVEL AND PROPORTION OF LAND USE IN SINGLE- FAMILY RESIDENCE WAS DEVELOPED. IT WAS ESTIMATED THAT, WITH A 20 PERCENT INCREASE IN COMMUNITY SOCIO-ECONOMIC LEVEL, AND NO INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS THE NUMBER OF VEHICLES WOULD INCREASE BY EIGHT PERCENT AND TRIPS BY 24 PERCENT IN 10 YEARS IN THE STUDY AREA. THIS DISPROPORTIONATE INCREASE IN TRIPS WOULD BE DUE TO THE MOVEMENT INTO HIGHER SOCIO-ECONOMIC LEVELS WITH MORE INTENSIVE VEHICLE USE.

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  • Authors:
    • Janes, Robert W
  • Publication Date: 1965

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: References; Tables;
  • Pagination: pp 171-181
  • Monograph Title: Travel patterns
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00227469
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Aug 15 2004 2:36AM