Road transport outlook 2000: the impact of micro-economic reform productivity and employment projections

The Transport Workers Union commissioned the Zerby Report in order to clarify the effect of proposed micro-economic reforms on the road transport industry. The Zerby report makes it clear that while some changes are necessary in our industry, there are no effective "quick-fix" solutions at hand. Change must accommodate the realities of the industry. Three scenarios are examined: 1) The "no change" scenario provides a favourable picture for the road freight industry. An analysis based on existing trends, a regulatory and pre-recession economic environment projects a 5% per year growth rate for the road freight sector. By the year 2001 the number of vehicles and drivers would increase by approximately 170% from the 1989/90 period. That could mean a total of 400,000 vehicles on Australia's roads. 2) In the "Commercial Rail" Scenario, the Rail Industry Council (RIC) proposals would result in additional road freight tonnage as rail divests itself of all freight which is projected to be non-commercial. Through the proposed National Freight Corporation reforms, rail is likely to achieve the largest share of interstate freight. Given that short-haul road freight operations tend to be more productive than long-haul operations, road freight productivity is projected to increase in this scenario. 3) The "Constant Market Share" Scenario represents the least desirable outcome for road. It anticipates a relative decline in road freight market share as rail and sea transport improve their productivity. However employment levels and market share in the road transport industry would also grow as road freight grows in short-haul operations, although at a lesser rate than projected in the "no change" scenario. According to this scenario, the proportion of long-distance drivers would fall.

  • Authors:
    • Zerby, J
  • Publication Date: 1992


  • English

Media Info

  • Pagination: 170p

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01433046
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: ARRB
  • Files: ATRI
  • Created Date: Aug 24 2012 5:23PM