THE STEPWISE PLANNING PROCEDURE: CIRTICAL AND NONCRITICAL PHASES WITH RESPECT TO ERROR CONTRIBUTION

THE TRAFFIC FORECASTING PROCESS IS COMPOSED OF A SERIES OF SUBFORECASTS THAT FORM A CHAIN, THE LINKS OF WHICH ARE MORE OR LESS PRONE TO ERRORS OF GREATER OR LESSER IMPORTANCE. WHILE THE WEIGHT OF THE SUB- FORECASTS IS RECOGNIZED IN MOST PLANS, RECOGNIZED IN MOST PLANS, RECOGNITION IS MOSTLY INTUITIVE. IT IS ARGUED THAT BEFORE CONSIDERABLE SUMS ARE SPENT FOR LARGE-SCALE PLANNING, THE PLANNING STRATEGY SHOULD BE EVALUATED WITH RESPECT TO ERROR CONTRIBUTION AND CRITICAL PHASES. USING THE EXAMPLE OF POPULATION IMPACT, THE AUTHOR DEVELOPS A QUANTITATIVE METHOD FOR ASSESSING ERROR CONTRIBUTION, AND CONCLUDES THAT POPULATION, NORMALLY CONSIDERED A CRITICAL FACTOR IN TRAFFIC FORECASTING, PLAYS ALMOST NO ROLE WHATEVER IN CONDITIONS EXISTING IN NORWAY.

  • Availability:
  • Corporate Authors:

    Eno Transportation Foundation

    1250 I Street, NW, Suite 750
    Washington, DC  United States  20005
  • Authors:
    • STRAND, S
  • Publication Date: 1972-1

Media Info

  • Pagination: p. 99-115
  • Serial:
    • Traffic Quarterly
    • Volume: 26
    • Issue Number: 1
    • Publisher: Eno Transportation Foundation
    • ISSN: 0041-0713

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00228164
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: May 16 2001 12:00AM