TRANSIT USAGE FORECASTING TECHNIQUES: A REVIEW AND NEW DIRECTIONS

THE PROPER DESIGN OF TRANSIT VEHICLES AND STATIONS, AND THE PREDICTED ECONOMICS OF THE TRANSIT SYSTEMS, THEMSELVES RELY HEAVILY ON ACCURATE ESTIMATES OF RIDERSHIP. AN INTENSIVE REVIEW IS PRESENTED OF OPERATIONAL MODAL SPLIT MODELS, SUPPORTED BY EVIDENCE DERIVED FROM A REVIEW OF THE RELEVANT LITERAURE ON TRANSIT USAGE AND PERSONAL BEHAVIOR IN MODAL CHOICE SITUATIONS. SEVERAL CRITICAL FACTORS IN THE MODAL CHOICE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS ARE THEN IDENTIFIED, TO THE EXTENT POSSIBLE, TO PERMIT THEIR POSSIBLE USE IN MORE REFINED MODAL SPLIT FORECASTING MODELS. THE STEPS NECESSARY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF BEHAVIORAL MODAL CHOICE MODELS ARE DESCRIBED; CONSIDERATION IS GIVEN TO BOTH THE ACTUAL AND DESIRED USES OF THE OUTPUTS FROM MODAL SPLIT MODELS, BOTH IN THE PLANNING PROCESS AND IN ESTABLISHING PUBLIC POLICY. THE EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS TO A DISCUSSION OF THE BASIC CHARACTERISTICS OF MODELS (THEIR FUNCTIONS, THEIR FORMULATION, AND THE PROBLEMS OF VALIDATION). THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A DISCUSSION OF COST-EFFECTIVENESS CONSIDERATIONS IN MODEL DEVELOPMENT. SPECIAL ATTENTION IS THEN GIVEN TO THE PROBLEMS OF FORECASTING THE USAGE OF SUCH NEW PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION AS MAY EXIST IN CONCEPTS AT THE TIME OF THIS REPORT. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ARE MADE. /UMTA/

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • PROJ NO NSS-4
  • Corporate Authors:

    CONSAD Research Corporation

    121 North Highland Avenue
    Pittsburgh, PA  USA  15206
  • Publication Date: 1968-4

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00228268
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Urban Mass Transportation Administration
  • Files: TRIS, USDOT
  • Created Date: Nov 7 1972 12:00AM