PROJECTION OF URBAN PERSONAL TRANSPORTATION DEMAND

FUNCTIONAL RELATIONSHIPS ARE DEVELOPED FOR ESTIMATING TRANSPORTATION DEMAND FOR 1965, AND FOR FORECASTING TRANSPORTATION DEMAND FOR 1975 AND 1985 FOR ALL URBANIZED AREAS. THE SPECIFIC CLASSIFICATIONS OF DEMAND THAT WERE INVESTIGATED IN THIS STUDY WERE: (1) TOTAL TRIPS PER DAY; (2) TOTAL DAILY TRIPS BY MAJOR PURPOSE CATEGORY; (3) TOTAL TRIPS PER DAY BY MAJOR POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS; AND (4) AVERAGE TRIP DISTANCES AND TIMES. SPECIFIC FORECASTS AND FINDINGS OF THIS REPORT ARE THAT: (1) THE 1965 DEMAND IN AREAS HAVING A POPULATION OF 1,000,000 IS 124,299,000 TRIPS PER DAY AND AREAS IN THE 250,000 TO 500,000 POPULATION GENERATE 23,400,000 TRIPS PER DAY. (2) IN 1985, THE LARGER GROUP WILL GENERATE ABOUT 282,947,000 TRIPS PER DAY, AND THE SMALLER GROUP IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE 48,232,000 TRIPS PER DAY. (3) THE 1965 DISTRIBUTION OF URBANIZED AREAS WITHIN EACH POPULATION GROUP IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE DRAMATICALLY BY 1985 AS THESE AREAS EXPERIENCE UNPRECEDENTED GROWTH. (4) CONSIDERING WORK TRIPS AS THE PRIMARY COMPONENT OF TRAVEL DEMAND, INCREASED TRIP MAKING FROM 1965 TO 1985 WILL BE IN DIRECT PROPORTION TO INCREASES IN WORKING AGE POPULATION. (5) POPULATION IS THE ONLY EFFECTIVE INDICATOR OF URBAN STRUCTURE. (6) POPULATION IS HIGHLY CORRELATIVE WITH THE TOTAL AVERAGE TIME OF ALL TRIPS (HOME BASED WORK, SOCIAL AND RECREATION, PERSONAL BUSINESS, AND SHOPPING TRIPS). /UMTA/

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • PROJ NO NSS-11
  • Corporate Authors:

    PEAT MARWICK MITCHELL & CO

    WASHINGTON, DC  United States 
  • Publication Date: 1968-3

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00228267
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Urban Mass Transportation Administration
  • Files: TRIS, USDOT
  • Created Date: Nov 7 1972 12:00AM