STOCHASTIC DISAGGREGATE MODE CHOICE MODELS: A TEST OF THREE HYPOTHESES

STOCHASTIC DISAGREGATE ANALYSIS FOCUSES UPON CAUSAL VARIABLES AND FUNDAMENTAL RELATIONSHIPS BY ADDRESSING ITSELF TO THE UNIQUE CHOICE ENVIRONMENT OF EACH INDIVIDUAL. THREE BASIC QUESTIONS ARE RAISED: FIRST, WHICH OF THREE ANALYTIC TECHNIQUES IS BEST IN CALCULATING THE PROPORTIONS OF A GROUP CHOOSING EACH SPECIFIC MODE: (1) DISCRIMINATE ANALYSIS (WHICH SEPARATES A HETEROGENEOUS GROUP INTO SUBGROUPS ACCORDING TO A LINEAR FUNCTION OF SUBJECT ATTRIBUTES); (2) PROBIT ANALYSIS; AND (3) LOGIT ANALYSIS (WHICH CALCULATES THE PROBABILITY THAT AN INDIVIDUAL WILL MAKE A SPECIFIC CHOICE GIVEN A SET OF VALUES FOR RELEVANT CHOICE PARAMETERS); SECOND, WHETHER DIFFERENCES, RATIOS, OR LOGS OF RATIOS BETWEEN TRAVEL TIMES AND COSTS ARE SUPERIOR IN CALCULATING MODE CHOICE; THIRD, CONCERNS THE RELATIVE ADVANTAGES OF USING STRATIFIED DATA. A COMPREHENSIVE LITERATURE SEARCH WAS CONDUCTED TO DETERMINE THE RESULTS OF EARLIER STUDIES. THE WORKS OF FIVE MAJOR RESEARCHERS ARE REVIEWED IN DETAIL. DATA FOR THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSES OF STOCHASTIC DISAGGREGATE MODELS WERE TAKEN FROM THE CHICAGO AREA TRANSPORTATION STUDY; A COMPLETE OUTLINE OF RESEARCH METHODOLOGY IS PROVIDED. SPECIFIC RESULTS FOR EACH OF THE THREE QUESTIONS ARE PROVIDED IN DETAIL. AS ANTICIPATED, THE LOGIT AND PROBIT TECHNIQUES PROVED MORE EFFECTIVE IN REPLICATING THE ACTUAL MODAL SPLIT PROPORTIONS, ALTHOUGH ALL THREE METHODS PERFORMED WELL. NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIABLE FORMULATIONS (IE. DIFFERENCES, RATIOS, OR LOGS OF RATIOS) WERE REVEALED. FINALLY, THE ANALYSIS YIELDED NO ADVANTAGES FOR USING STRATIFIED DATA; AGE, INCOME, AND LOCATION PROVED TO BE SIGNIFICANT DETERMINANTS OF MODE CHOICE FOR LOGIT MODELS, BUT A VARIABLE FOR SEX DID NOT APPRECIABLY AFFECT THE RESULTS. /UMTA/

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • PROJ NO URT-21
  • Corporate Authors:

    Northwestern University, Evanston

    Transportation Center, Leverone Hall
    Evanston, IL  USA  60201
  • Authors:
    • Lavender, J O
    • Stopher, P L
  • Publication Date: 1971-6

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00228264
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Urban Mass Transportation Administration
  • Files: TRIS, USDOT
  • Created Date: Nov 7 1972 12:00AM