ESTIMATING FUTURE TRANSIT USE-TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM NO 13

THIS REPORT'S PURPOSE IS TO DEFINE AND QUANTIFY HOW THE VARIABLES OF POPULATION DENSITY, OPERATING SPEED, DOWNTOWN EMPLOYMENT, SERVICE FREQUENCY, AND AUTOS ARE RELATED TO AND EFFECT TRANSIT RIDING HABITS. THE PARAMETERS WHICH AFFECT TRANSIT USE CAN BE CATEGORIZED INTO THREE BROAD AREAS -- THE TRANSIT SYSTEM, THE TRANSIT RIDER, AND THE LAND USES WHICH GENERATE AND ATTRACT TRIPS. RESEARCH BEING CONDUCTED BY THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TRANSIT DEMONSTRATION PROJECT IS ATTEMPTING TO EVALUATE MANY COMBINATIONS OF VARIABLES IN AN ATTEMPT TO QUANTIFY AND DEVELOP A SET OF ESTIMATING EQUATIONS WHICH WILL DRAW TOGETHER THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THESE VARIABLES AND ENABLE THE CALCULATION OF FUTURE TRANSIT TRIPS WITHIN PRESCRIBED LIMITS OF PLANNING ACCURACY. THE MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION WHICH COMBINES AND QUANTIFIES THESE FACTORS -- THE TRANSIT USE MODEL -- IS THE BASIC TOOL FOR EVALUATING THE RESULTS OF ALTERING THE FRAMEWORK WITHIN WHICH A CURRENT TRANSPORTATION NETWORK OPERATES. THE INDEPENDENT VARIABLES WHICH WERE FOUND TO BE SIGNIFICANT MEASURES OF THE CAUSES FOR TRANSIT TRIP PRODUCTIONS IN THE INITIAL COMPUTER RUN WERE: (1) POPULATION, (2) NUMBER OF EMPLOYED PERSONS IN EACH ZONE, (3) NUMBER OF HOUSEING UNITS WITH NO AUTOMOBILE AVAILABLE, (4) TOTAL AUTOMOBILES PER ZONE, AND (5) ZONE AREA MEASURED IN ACRES. /UMTA/

  • Corporate Authors:

    Simpson & Curtin, San Francisco

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  • Publication Date: 0

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00228209
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Urban Mass Transportation Administration
  • Files: TRIS, USDOT
  • Created Date: Jan 17 1982 12:00AM