A SYSTEMS MODEL FOR RECREATIONAL TRAVEL IN ONTARIO: A PROGRESS REPORT

RESULTS ARE PRESENTED OF THE APPLICATION OF THE SYSTEM OF THEORETIC MODELING TECHNIQUES TO THE PROBLEM OF SIMULATING RECREATIONAL TRAVEL ON THE HIGHWAYS OF ONTARIO. THE RESULTS OF A SERIES OF FACTOR ANALYSIS STUDIES ON THE BEHAVIOR OF CERTAIN CLASSES OF RECREATIONAL HIGHWAY USERS ARE ALSO GIVEN. COMPUTER MAPPING TECHNIQUES USING THE SYMAP PROGRAM WERE DEVELOPED. THE METHOD OF MODELING RECREATIONAL TRAVEL AS A SYSTEM DEPENDS UPON THE SEGREGATION OF THE PROVINCE INTO THREE CLASSES OF COMPONENTS RELEVANT TO THE PROBLEM: (1) A SET OF ORIGIN AREAS, (2) A SET OF HIGHWAY LINK COMPONENTS (A SUBSET OF PROVINCIAL HIGHWAY SEGMENTS), AND (3) A SET OF DESTINATION AREAS. PROVINCIAL PARKS WERE CHOSEN AS THE DESTINATION AREAS SINCE DATA WERE AVAILABLE FROM 1964 RECREATIONAL TRAVEL SURVEY. THE ORIGIN DESTINATION ESTIMATES FOR CAMPERS AT THESE PARKS GAVE DATA AGAINST WHICH A MODEL COULD BE CALIBRATED AND EVALUATED. EACH COMPONENT WAS MODELED BY AN EQUATION WRITTEN IN TERMS OF TWO VARIABLES, THE PROPENSITY TO CAMP (AS PRESSURE), AND THE FLOW OF CAMPERS (AS FLOW). THE ORIGIN COMPONENTS WERE MODELED AS KNOWN FLOW SOURCES, EACH EQUAL IN MAGNITUDE TO THE TOTAL OF CAMPERS REPORTED AT ALL PARKS FROM THE RESPECTIVE ORIGIN. THE ATTRACTIVENESS OF THE PARK COMPONENTS WAS MODELED BY A SIMPLE FORMULA INVOLVING THE FACILITIES AND RELATIVE SIZE OF EACH PARK FOR CAMPING. THE RESISTANCE OF HIGHWAY LINKS WAS CONSIDERED TO BE MADE UP OF A COMPONENT DUE TO DRIVING TIME IN HOURS AND A COMPONENT DUE TO DIRECT COST ON VEHICLE OPERATION, ALL RAISED TO AN EXPONENT POWER. THE SYSTEMS MODEL CAN BE CONSIDERED TO PRESENT EACH ORIGIN AREA WITH A VERY LARGE NUMBER OF PATHS, ALL PRESENTING AN INDIVIDUAL RESISTANCE WHICH IS INCREASED BY A LENGTHY TRIP AND DECREASED BY AN ATTRACTIVE DESTINATION. HIGHWAY USERS ARE POSTULATED TO DISTRIBUTE THEMSELVES OVER THE SYSTEM ON A BASIS OF DECREASING FLOW WITH INCREASING RESISTANCE AND NO PATHS ARBITRARILY EXCLUDED. PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF THE RESULTING DESTINATION ARRIVAL TOTALS ARE GIVEN, ALONG WITH SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS IN THE MODEL.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • 67 Pp, 9 TaB, 27 REF
  • Corporate Authors:

    Ontario Department of Highways

    1201 Wilson Avenue
    Toronto, Ontario M3M 1J8,   Canada 
  • Authors:
    • Ellis, J B
  • Publication Date: 0

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00227556
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: CANADIAN GOOD ROADS ASSOCIATION
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Aug 15 2004 2:01AM