Modelling of the future of transport fuels in Australia: a report to the Future Fuels Forum

This report provides the technical detail behind the projections presented in the report Fuel for thought. It describes the modelling framework that was applied, the scenario and model assumptions that were used to underpin the modelling and the detailed model results associated with each scenario examined. The report contains results for a number of sensitivity cases not discussed in detail in Fuel for thought. While the core drivers of the main scenarios are greenhouse gas emissions trading and changes in international oil supply, the sensitivity cases address uncertainty around social preferences for travel, additional policies that might be considered by governments and technological uncertainty in regard to biofuels, hydrogen, nuclear power and CO2 capture and storage. Besides providing additional detail on modelling results the purpose of the report is to make the assumptions of the modelling framework and underpinning data more transparent. The model that is employed for this report is CSIRO's Energy Sector Model (ESM). It is a partial equilibrium model of the Australian energy sector including a detailed transport sector representation. Like all models, ESM has specific strengths and limitations which are discussed in detail in this report.

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Pagination: 111p

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01385616
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: ARRB
  • Report/Paper Numbers: IR 1046
  • Files: ATRI
  • Created Date: Aug 22 2012 7:05PM