The accuracy of ex-ante benefit cost analysis – a post opening evaluation in the case of Norwegian road projects

The Norwegian Public Roads Administration (NPRA) carries out cost benefit analysis (CBA) for its trunk road schemes. The purpose of this is to provide decision makers with information regarding the economic viability of the projects. Essentially, CBAs are performed ex ante. They are a prediction of what will occur if projects are implemented. A question raised by the government auditors and the decision makers is whether the predicted impacts are actually achieved. Thus in 2005, the Norwegian Ministry of Transport and Communications authorised the NPRA to continually carry out ex post studies of implemented projects. The purpose is to determine how far the NPRA is achieving its objectives and benefits from its road programme. By recalculating CBAs of 11 Norwegian road schemes 5 years after the opening with actual data, we find (1) the net present values (NPV) are greater than forecasted for 8 of the projects studied, (2) an explanation for higher benefits than forecasted is that the rate of traffic growth are higher than forecasted and, (3) further divergences between forecasted and actual results are explained by under/overestimation of investment costs, differences in accident costs as well as changes in project designs over time.

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Pagination: 29p
  • Monograph Title: Joint carrier-receiver response to cordon pricing, time-distance pricing, and comprehensive carrier-receiver policies

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01384436
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: ARRB
  • Files: ATRI
  • Created Date: Aug 22 2012 4:35PM