Effective Travel Demand Modeling to Support Smart Growth and Climate Change Policies

There is some debate about the best model to use for analyzing the traffic impacts of new development. Although travel demand models are excellent for quantifying traffic displacement and providing a framework for calculating alternative transportation mode trips, they may underpredict vehicular demand. Conventional traffic impact analysis, on the other hand, may overpredict demand, especially for large mixed- use developments. This article compares two methodologies for predicting travel demand for new developments. The first is a travel demand model. The second is a traffic engineering approach in which trip generation volumes are layered over existing traffic volumes. Intersection levels of service are calculated for both sets of traffic volumes. The comparison uses data from two San Francisco Bay Area mixed-use development projects. The findings show that the travel demand models in general generated intersection volumes that were similar to traffic volumes measured in the field after project completion. These models should be applied with ample iterations for peak period equilibrium highway assignments and specify distribution and assignment model components for peak periods rather than peak hours. This methodology also provides a way to calculate changes in vehicle miles of travel (VMT) per capita, which is a primary input to greenhouse emission estimations. In contrast, the conventional traffic engineering technique did not provide estimates of VMT or average trip length.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/oclc/614107147
• Authors:
  • Hough, Jill Luria
  • Black, Gary
• Publication Date: 2012-5

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures;
• Pagination: pp 30-35
• Serial:
  • ITE Journal
  • Volume: 82
  • Issue Number: 5
  • Publisher: Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE)
  • ISSN: 0162-8178
  • Serial URL: https://www.ite.org/publications/ite-journal/

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Climate change; Level of service; Mixed use development; Smart growth; Traffic models; Traffic volume; Travel demand; Trip generation; Vehicle miles of travel
• Geographic Terms: San Francisco Bay Area
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01380389
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Aug 21 2012 8:54AM