Influence of impact speed estimation errors on pedestrian fatality risk curves

Recent findings from real-world accident data have shown that fatality risks for pedestrians are substantially lower than generally reported in the traffic safety literature. One of the keys to this insight has been the large and random sample of car-to-pedestrian crashes available in the German in-depth accident study (GIDAS). Another key factor has been the proper use of weight factors in order to adjust for outcome-based sampling bias in the accident data. However, a third factor, a priori of unknown importance, has not yet been properly analyzed. This is the influence of errors in impact speed estimation. In this study, a statistical model of the impact speed errors for pedestrian accidents present in the GIDAS database was derived. The error model was then applied to investigate the effect of the estimation error on the pedestrian fatality risk as a function of car impact speed. To this end, a method known as the SIMulation-EXtrapolation (SIMEX) method was applied. It was found that the risk curve is fairly tolerant to some amount of random measurement error, but that it does become flattened. It is therefore important that the accident investigations and reconstructions are of high quality to assure that systematic errors are minimized and that the random errors are under control. (A) Paper to the session "Accidents of Vulnerable Road Users" of the 4th International Conference on ESAR "Expert Symposium on Accident Research", 16th to 18th September 2010 in Hannover. For the covering abstract of the conference, see ITRD D366702.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/09439307
• Authors:
  • ROSEN, E
  • SANDER, U
• Publication Date: 2010-12

Language

• English

Media Info

• Pagination: 12p
• Monograph Title: Assessing the field relevance of testing protocols and injury risk functions employed in new car assessment programs
• Serial:
  • BERICHTE DER BUNDESANSTALT FUER STRASSENWESEN. UNTERREIHE FAHRZEUGTECHNIK
  • Issue Number: 77
  • Publisher: WIRTSCHAFTSVERLAG NW
  • ISSN: 0943-9307

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobiles; Calculation; Conferences; Crash reconstruction; Crashes; Curves (Geometry); Errors; Fatalities; Hazards; Mathematical models; Pedestrians; Regression analysis; Simulation; Speed
• Geographic Terms: Germany
• ITRD Terms: 1643: Accident; 1621: Accident reconstruction; 6464: Calculation; 1243: Car; 1631: Collision; 8525: Conference; 6496: Curve (math); 6440: Error; 1602: Fatality; 8125: Germany; 6473: Mathematical model; 1733: Pedestrian; 6588: Regression analysis; 9150: Risk; 9103: Simulation; 5408: Speed
• Subject Areas: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Safety and Human Factors; I80: Accident Studies; I84: Personal Injuries;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01379778
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen (BASt)
• Files: ITRD
• Created Date: Aug 2 2012 9:30AM