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https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/27432/critical-issues-in-transportation-for-2024-and-beyond

HIGHWAY TRAFFIC SAFETY: HAS TECHNOLOGY HELPED?

THE TRANSPORTATION DEPARTMENT CAPTURED HEADLINES ACROSS THE NATION THIS PAST WEEK BY ANNOUNCING THAT THE 1970 FATALITY RATE ON THE HIGHWAYS WAS THE LOWEST ON RECORD, ATTRIBUTING MUCH OF THE REDUCTION TO SAFER AUTOMOBILES AND BETTER ROADS. HOWEVER, CHARTS AND STATISTICS RELEASED BY THE DEPARTMENT TO BACK UP THESE CLAIMS WERE CONTRADICTORY ENOUGH TO THROW A SHADOW OF DOUBT OVER THEIR VALIDITY, AND SOME OUTSIDE SPECIALISTS IN THE FIELD QUESTIONED WHETHER FEDERAL AND INDUSTRY EFFORTS HAD ANYTHING LIKE THE BENEFICIAL EFFECTS SUGGESTED. AMONG THE DISCREPANCIES: (1) A BROCHURE FOR GENERAL PUBLIC RELEASE INCLUDES A FULL-PAGE CHART INDICATING GRAPHICALLY A "DRAMATIC" DROP IN FATALITIES BETWEEN 1969 AND 1970. HOWEVER, THE DEPARTMENT APPARENTLY PICKED THE ONE MOST STRIKING CHART OUT OF THREE AVAILABLE, AND MISLABELED IT AS A PRESENTATION OF THE FATALITY RATE PER 100 MILLION VEHICLE MILES OF TRAVEL IN 1970. THE CHART ACTUALY APPEARS TO BE IDENTICAL TO ONE BASED ON THE FATALITY RATE PER 100,000 REGISTERED VEHICLES, NOT ON THE MILES TRAVELED. THE DIFFERENCE IS IMPORTANT IN THE LIGHT OF THE BELIEF OF SOME SPECIALISTS THAT THE RATE HAS GONE DOWN ONLY BECAUSE TRAVEL HAS DECREASED. (2) THE CLAIM THAT 1970 SHOWED THE LOWEST FATALITY RATE WAS BASED ON AN ESTIMATE OF 4.9 DEATHS PER 100 MILLION VEHICLE MILES. WHILE THIS WAS APPARENTLY A CORRECT CLAIM, THE DEPARTMENT SAID THAT THE 1969 RATE WAS 5.32. IN FACT, MORE CURRENT FIGURES REDUCE THIS TO 5.23. IN ANY EVENT, THE DEATH RATE WAS FAR BELOW THE 9.18 LEVEL OF 1946, BUT NOT MUCH BETTER THAN THE LOW OF 5.16 ACHIEVED IN 1961 -- LONG BEFORE THE AUTO SAFETY REGULATIONS. (3) THE DEPARTMENT EMPLOYED THREE DIFFERENT "TOTAL FATALITY" FIGURES IN ANNOUNCING THE REDUCTION, FURTHER ADDING TO THE CONTROVERSY. THE REPORT STATES THAT THE 1970 TOTAL WAS 55,300. THE DEPARTMENT'S ANNOUNCEMENT SAYS THE REPORT STATES THE 1970 TOTAL WAS 53,300. AND SUBSEQUENT TO THE PRINTING OF THE REPORT, A "STATISTICAL ADJUSTMENT"IN BASE LINE FIGURES CHANGED THE 1970 FATALITY TOTAL TO 54,800, WHICH WOULD BE 1,200 BELOW 1969 AND 62 BELOW 1968, BUT HIGHER THAN ANY OTHER YEAR. SOME SPECIALISTS BELIEVE THAT THE SAFETY REGULATIONS HAVE HAD A DISAPPOINTINGLY MINOR EFFECT, AND THAT THE MAJOR DETERMINING FACTOR IN THE FATALITY RATE MAY ACTUALLY BE THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY. ONE SPECIALIST NOTED THAT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE RATE OF INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT AND THE DEATH RATE ON THE HIGHWAYS IS VIRTUALLY "INSTANTANEOUS" AND THAT THIS COULD ACCOUNT FOR THE DECLINES IN 1970, A YEAR OF ECONOMIC RECESSION. THE DEPARTMENT ACKNOWLEDGED THIS, COMMENTING THAT HISTORICALLY, THE VARIATIONS IN NUMBERS KILLED IN TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS FOLLOW THE SWINGS IN THE ECONOMY, AND THAT "IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SHARP ECONOMIC UPTURN COULD UPSET THAT BALANCE AND EVEN REVERSE THIS FIRST FAVORABLE TRAFFIC SAFETY OUTLOOK." NO ONE HAS APPARENTLY BEEN ABLE TO DEMONSTRATE A CAUSE AND EFFECT RELATIONSHIP, ALTHOUGH ONE WIDELY HELD THEORY IS THAT, DURING AN ECONOMIC DOWNTURN, DRIVERS WHO DRINK ARE MORE LIKELY TO DO SO AT HOME, RATHER THAN DRIVE TO A NIGHTSPOT OR TAVERN. THE DEPARTMENT ITSELF ESTIMATES THAT "THE EXCESSIVE CONSUMPTION OF ALCOHOL" CAUSES AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF ALL TRAFFIC FATALITIES. /WST/

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Vol 27, No 2, PP 7-8, 3 REF
  • Publication Date: 1971-10-18

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  • Accession Number: 00221494
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jan 17 1972 12:00AM