Discussion on the influence of truncation of ground motion residual distribution on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

Assessment of a very low annual probability of exceeding (APE) ground motions in recent studies have highlighted the importance of the upper bound of ground motions when very low probability results are acquired. The truncation level adopted in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) should be determined by an aleatory uncertainty model (i.e., distribution model) of ground motions and the possible maximum and minimum ground motion values of a specific earthquake. At the present time, however, it is impossible to establish the upper bound model for ground motions based on the source characteristics and/or ground motion propagation. This study aims to find a reasonable and feasible truncation level to be used in PSHA when the physical mechanism is not available to find the extreme ground motion. A mathematical analysis of the influence of the truncation level on PSHA, case studies of sites in different seismotectonic settings, and a distribution analysis of ground motion residuals are conducted.

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  • English

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  • Accession Number: 01362958
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Feb 16 2012 10:15AM