A threshold model of social contagion process for evacuation decision making

Individual evacuation decisions are often characterized by the influence of one's social network. In this paper a threshold model of social contagion, originally proposed in the network science literature, is presented to characterize this social influence in the evacuation decision making process. Initiated by a single agent, the condition of a cascade when a portion of the population decides to evacuate has been derived from the model. Simulation models are also developed to investigate the effects of community mixing patterns and the initial seed on cascade propagation and the effect of previous time-steps considered by the agents and the strength of ties on average cascade size. Insights related to social influence include the significant role of mixing patterns among communities in the network and the role of the initial seed on cascade propagation. Specifically, faster propagation of warning is observed in community networks with greater inter-community connections.

• Record URL:
  http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191261511001081
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/01912615
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Abstract reprinted with permission from Elsevier.
• Authors:
  • Hasan, Samiul
  • Ukkusuri, Satish V
• Publication Date: 2011-12

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 1590-1605
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Part B: Methodological
  • Volume: 45
  • Issue Number: 10
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0191-2615
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/01912615

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Complex systems; Decision making; Disasters and emergency operations; Evacuation; Networks; Social factors; Warning systems
• Uncontrolled Terms: Active community environments; Cascading events; Contagion; Threshold (Math)
• Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies; Transportation (General); I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01359504
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, ATRI
• Created Date: Dec 22 2011 2:08PM