Confidence interval estimation for path flow estimator

The uncertainty of an origin-destination (O-D) trip table estimate is affected by two factors: (i) the multiplicity of solutions due to the underspecified nature of the problem, and (ii) the errors of traffic counts. In this paper, a confidence interval estimation procedure for path flow estimator (PFE) is developed for assessing the quality of O-D trip tables estimated from traffic counts. The confidence interval estimation consists of two parts: (i) a generalized demand scale (GDS) measure for quantifying the intrinsic underspecified nature of the O-D estimation problem at various spatial levels, and (ii) an error bound to quantify the contribution of input errors (traffic counts) to the estimation results. Numerical results using PFE as the O-D estimator show that the proposed confidence interval estimation procedure is able to separate the two sources of uncertainty in constructing the confidence intervals at various spatial levels. Simulation results also confirm that the proposed quality measure indeed contain the true estimates within the defined confidence intervals.

• Record URL:
  http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191261511001019
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/01912615
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Abstract reprinted with permission from Elsevier.
• Authors:
  • Chootinan, Piya
  • Chen, Anthony
• Publication Date: 2011-12

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 1680-1698
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Part B: Methodological
  • Volume: 45
  • Issue Number: 10
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0191-2615
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/01912615

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Confidence intervals; Evaluation and assessment; Origin and destination; Sensitivity analysis; Stochastic processes; Traffic equilibrium; Traffic estimation; Traffic flow; Uncertainty
• Uncontrolled Terms: Path flow estimator; Path flows; User equilibrium
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I71: Traffic Theory;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01359513
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, ATRI
• Created Date: Dec 22 2011 2:08PM