CHANGING CHARACTERISTICS OF HIGH ACCIDENT DRIVERS OVER A FIVE YEAR PERIOD

ACCIDENT RECORD SUMMARIES WERE COLLECTED FOR THE YEARS 1967 THROUGH 1971 FOR ALL DRIVERS WHO WERE IDENTIFIED AS HAVING BEEN INVOLVED IN THREE OF MORE ACCIDENTS DURING THE YEAR 1967. DRIVER RECORD SUMMARIES WERE COLLECTED FOR DRIVERS INVOLVED IN THREE OR MORE ACCIDENTS DURING THE YEAR 1967 AND A TOTAL OF FIVE OR MORE ACCIDENTS DURING THE ENTIRE FIVE YEAR STUDY PERIOD. IT WAS FOUND THAT THE ACCIDENT RECORDS OF MOST OF THE DRIVERS STUDIED EXHIBITED MUCH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE FOUR YEAR PERIOD FOLLOWING THE BASE YEAR. APPROXIMATELY FORTY PERCENT OF THE DRIVERS WHO WERE INVOLVED IN THREE OR MORE ACCIDENTS DURING THE BASE YEAR WERE IDENTIFIED AS HAVING NO ADDITIONAL REPORTED ACCIDENTS DURING THE FOLLOWING FOUR YEAR PERIOD. IT WAS FOUND THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT, WITH ANY DEGREE OF ACCURACY, WHICH DRIVERS WHO WERE HIGH ACCIDENT DRIVERS DURING A PARTICULAR YEAR WOULD CONTINUE TO BE EXCESSIVE ACCIDENT REPEATERS DURING FOLLOWING YEARS. TWO CHARACTERISTICS STUDIED THAT APPEARED TO HAVE THE GREATEST VALUE AS ACCIDENT PREDICTORS WERE THE NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS DURING A YEAR AND THE TYPE OF LICENSE. FOR THE AVERAGE DRIVER OF A HIGH ACCIDENT GROUP, IT WAS FOUND THAT AS THE NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS IN WHICH HE WAS INVOLVED DURING THE BASE YEAR INCREASE, THE PROBABILITY OF HIS BEING INVOLVED IN ADDITIONAL ACCIDENTS DURING THE FOLLOWING YEARS ALSO INCREASED. PERSONS WITH CHAUFFEUR'S LICENSES AND PARTICULARLY PUBLIC PASSENGER CHAUFFEUR'S LICENSES WERE FOUND TO SHARE A MUCH GREATER PROPORTION OF THE HIGH ACCIDENT GROUPS THAN THEIR PROPORTIONS OF THE LICENSED DRIVERS WOULD INDICATE. IN GENERAL, THE ACCIDENT RECORD OF A DRIVER DURING ONE YEAR DOES NOT ENABLE A REASONABLE PREDICTION OF THE DRIVERS ACCIDENT RECORD FOR FUTURE YEARS.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • PROJ NO C-36-150
• Corporate Authors:

  Purdue University/Indiana Department of Transportation JHRP

  Purdue University, School of Civil Engineering
  West Lafayette, IN  United States  47907-1284
• Authors:
  • Goodson, J E
• Publication Date: 1972-9

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 120 p.
• Serial:
  • Issue Number: 29

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Crash investigation; Crash rates; Data collection; Driver licensing; Drivers; Forecasting
• Subject Areas: Highways; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00224131
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Apr 2 1973 12:00AM