Prediction Reliability of the Transport Simulation Models: A Before and After Study in Naples

A transportation system can be defined as the combination of elements and their interactions, which produce the demand for travel within a given area and the supply of transportation services to satisfy this demand. The relevant interactions among the various elements of a transportation system can be simulated with mathematical models. Supply models simulate the performances of the transportation services available among the different zones and demand models simulate the relevant aspects of travel demand as a function of the activity system and of the supply performances. The characteristics of travel demand simulated include the number of trips in the reference period and their distribution among the different zones, the different transport modes, and the different paths. The interaction between demand and supply can be simulated through assignment models which allow the calculation of link flows. There is a great number of applications of these models. The models are generally estimated to reproduce the observed actual system conditions and then applied to predict the future system conditions due to possible changes in the supply system. Very few studies have been conducted to verify the reliability of these models by comparing the real future system conditions with those predicted by the model. This paper investigates the prediction reliability of the transport system models, through a before and after study, taking advantage of the opening of a new part of a Neapolitan subway in December 2002.

• Record URL:
  http://abstracts.aetransport.org/conference/index/id/11
• Corporate Authors:

  Association for European Transport (AET)

  1 Vernon Mews, Vernon Street, West Kensington
  London W14 0RL,    
• Authors:
  • Cascetta, Ennio
  • Papola, Andrea
  • Cartenì, Armando
• Conference:
  • European Transport Conference, 2005
  • Location: Strasbourg , France
  • Date: 2005-10-3 to 2005-10-5
• Publication Date: 2005

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Bibliography; Figures; Maps; Tables;
• Pagination: 18p
• Monograph Title: European Transport Conference, 2005 Proceedings

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Mathematical models; Mode choice; Origin and destination; Reliability (Statistics); Simulation; Traffic assignment; Traffic forecasting; Travel demand; Trip distribution
• Geographic Terms: Naples (Italy)
• Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01354520
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Oct 20 2011 2:46PM