Predicting Truck Crash Involvement: Linking Driver Behaviors to Crash Probability

Driver-related issues continue to contribute to large truck crashes in up to 90% of cases. However, over the past decade the trucking industry, working in close tandem with federal and state safety and enforcement agencies, has greatly reduced the number of truck-involved crashes and fatalities in the U.S. As the fatal crash rate decreases, however, it becomes increasingly difficult to effect positive changes in safety performance. This article reports on a study by the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) to investigate a statistical method and tool that relates truck driver behaviors with future crash probabilities. The study used data on 582,772 U.S. truck drivers from multiple driver-specific data sets to identify numerous driver history variables (i.e. violations, convictions, past crashes) that indicated 26 to 96% increases in the risk of being involved in a future crash. A conviction for failure to use or improper signal use was the leading conviction associated with an increased likelihood of a future crash. Ten additional convictions were also found to be significant crash predictors, including: improper turn, improper or erratic land changes, failure to obey traffic signs, speeding, and hours-of-service violations, among others. In relation to driver violations, an improper passing violation had the strongest association with crash involvement. In addition, drivers who had a previous crash on their record had an 88% increase in their likelihood of a future crash. Based on these statistically-significant behaviors, the authors provide recommendations for targeting both driver training and enforcement strategies as crash mitigation tools. They also consider the use of the Employer Notification System (ENS) which would provide carriers with real-time information on when problematic driver behaviors have occurred, allowing them to take near-real-time action before it is too late.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/oclc/31144651
• Authors:
  • Lueck, Micah D
  • Murray, Daniel C
• Publication Date: 2011-4

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 109-128
• Serial:
  • Journal of Transportation Law, Logistics and Policy
  • Volume: 78
  • Issue Number: 2
  • Publisher: Association for Transportation Law, Logistics and Policy
  • ISSN: 1078-5906
  • Serial URL: http://www.atlp.org/journal.html

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Driver training; Fatalities; Highway safety; Human factors in crashes; Lane changing; Moving violations; Prevention; Real time information; Risk assessment; Traffic law enforcement; Truck drivers; Turn signals
• Uncontrolled Terms: Crash prediction models
• Subject Areas: Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I81: Accident Statistics; I83: Accidents and the Human Factor;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01352549
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Sep 26 2011 7:58AM