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https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/27432/critical-issues-in-transportation-for-2024-and-beyond

Nutzen-Kosten-Analyse der Elektromobilitaet / Cost-benefit analysis of electric mobility

Der Beitrag befasst sich mit einer Studie, welche die soziooekonomische Rentabilitaet von Elektrofahrzeugen anhand einer Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse analysiert. In der Nutzen-Kosten-Abwaegung werden die Nutzen den Kosten der Elektromobilitaet gegenuebergestellt. Die Nutzen bestehen aus Umweltentlastungen und Kraftstoffeinsparungen, die Mehrkosten aus der Technologie (Batterien) und Stromkosten. Hintergrund der Studie ist eine Foerderstrategie fuer Elektrofahrzeuge, die im Rahmen des Nationalen Entwicklungsplans Elektromobilitaet 2009 in Deutschland eingeleitet wurde. Zentrales Ziel ist es hierbei, im Jahr 2020 mindestens 1 Million Elektrofahrzeuge in Deutschland zu erreichen. Im Rahmen des Konjunkturpaketes II wurden 500 Millionen Euro bereitgestellt, um damit Forschung und Entwicklung, die Markteinfuehrung und -verbreitung von elektrischen Fahrzeugen in Deutschland voranzubringen. Die Foerderung von Forschung und Entwicklung konzentriert sich dabei auf die Entwicklung von marktreifen Energiespeichern und Antriebstechnik sowie eine intelligente System- und Netzintegration. Die Studie geht unter anderem der Frage nach, ob die eingeschlagene Foerderungsstrategie erfolgversprechend ist und ob die aufgewendeten Finanzmittel sinnvoll eingesetzt sind. Der analytische Rahmen der Nutzen-Kosten-Abwaegung erfolgt schrittweise. Zunaechst werden Szenarien der Elektromobilitaet definiert, als naechstes erfolgt die Abschaetzung des Marktpotenzials und der kritischen Fahrleistung, dann wird eine Nutzen-Kosten-Analyse der Elektromobilitaet durchgefuehrt und abschliessend die Erfolgschancen der Elektromobilitaet durch Marktsimulation bewertet. ABSTRACT IN ENGLISH: This study analyses the socio-economic efficiency of electric mobility in Germany by carrying out a cost-benefit analysis. The assessment examines whether the current policy strategy of funding electric mobility is promising, in particular the Federal Government's National Development Plan for Electric Mobility (NEP) with financial means amounting to 500 million Euros. Are the short term goals of this funding scheme reasonable and realistic from an economic point of view? This can be expressed by quantifying the potential market for electric vehicles and summing up the impact of electric mobility to a cost-benefit ratio. The cost-benefit analysis is carried out based on alternative market deployment scenarios (a weighted range of worst to best case scenarios). The market potential in Germany - depending on the development of oil price and battery cost - is derived by a customized break-even analysis and leads to a range of results between 100,000 and 1.5 million electric vehicles sold until 2020. The mean - most probable - scenario for the displayed parameter range results in 600,000 vehicles, hence the goal of achieving 1 million electric vehicles seems way out of reach. The cost-benefit analysis of this market run-up phase relies on current mobility characteristics as well as assessment methodology and compares the impacts on operating costs (fuel savings) and environmental cost (CO2, NOx, noise) with the additional cost for electric energy storage. The cost-benefit ratio is between 1.2 and 1.6, proving a marginal socio-economic efficiency (CBR higher than 1), giving a justification for the general direction of the policy strategy brought up in the NEP. But depending on the conditions, public subsidies of at least 1.4 - 5.6 billion Euros need to be raised to generate additional purchases and to achieve the goal of 1 million electric vehicles until 2020. However, this type of funding is questionable due to the risks of windfall gains as well as impairments of the cost-benefit ratio. Funding leads to a lower break-even mileage which results in lower average mileage per vehicle. Hence, regarding additionally induced vehicle purchases, benefits do not increase in par with cost, which lowers the socio-economic efficiency. Instead of artificially raising the demand, it seems more reasonable to approach the market constraints on the cost side by supporting urgently needed proceedings in battery technology which should lead to lower costs and prices on the supply side. Concerning wider economic impacts from an industrial policy perspective, it is important to establish and keep R&D as well as production capacities of energy storage technology in Germany. Otherwise not only sustainable mobility is endangered, but also Germany as a future location for automotive industry. (A)

  • Availability:
  • Authors:
    • BAUM, H
    • DOBBERSTEIN, J
    • SCHULER, B
  • Publication Date: 2010

Language

  • German

Media Info

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01339747
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen (BASt)
  • Files: ITRD
  • Created Date: May 17 2011 11:57AM