QUANTITATIVE MODELS FOR AUTOMOBILE ACCIDENTS AND INSURANCE

THE INVOLVEMENT OF MOTORISTS IN ACCIDENTS AND THE RESULTING INTERACTION AMONG MOTORISTS, FEDERAL AND STATE GOVERNMENTS, AND INSURANCE COMPANIES IS REPORTED. PARTICULAR ATTENTION IS GIVEN TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF QUANTITATIVE MODELS THAT MAY BE USED IN COMPARING ALTERNATIVE GOVERNMENT ACTIONS IN REGULATING MOTORISTS. THE EFFECTS ON PREVIOUSLY LICENSED DRIVERS OF SEVERAL POSSIBLE LICENSING PROGRAMS ARE STUDIED IN DETAIL. CENTRAL TO THE ANALYSIS OF THESE PROGRAMS IS THE CHOICE OF A MODEL FOR THE INVOLVEMENT OF DRIVERS IN ACCIDENTS. AS AN ILLUSTRATION OF THE VALUE OF QUANTITATIVE METHODS IN EXAMINING AUTOMOBILE ACCIDENT AND INSURANCE PROBLEMS, A MODEL OF REMEDIAL LICENSING PROGRAMS IS DEVELOPED AND USED TO COMPARE SEVERAL, SPECIFIC ALTERNATIVES. A NOVEL BAYESIAN INTERPRETATION OF THE COMPOUND POISSON MODEL IS USED IN ORDER TO ESTIMATE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF VARIOUS DRIVER TRAINING PROGRAMS OVER SEVERAL YEARS. THE ANALYSIS PROVIDES ESTIMATES OF THE EFFECTS OF SUCH PROGRAMS IN TERMS OF SAVING IN ACCIDENTS, ADMINISTRATIVE COST, INCONVENIENCE TO DRIVERS, AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH HAZARDOUS DRIVERS ARE SINGLED OUT BY THE PROGRAMS. /AUTHOR/

• Corporate Authors:

  Department of Transportation

  /Automobile Insurance & Compensation St
  ,   United States 
• Authors:
  • Ferreira, J
• Publication Date: 1970-9

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile insurance; Driver licenses; Driver licensing; Driver training; Drivers; Driving; Federal government; Mathematical models; Methodology; Operating costs; Prevention; Probability theory; Quantitative analysis; Reckless drivers; Regulations; Safety; State government; Statistical analysis; Traffic crashes
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models; Motor vehicle accidents; Programs
• Geographic Terms: United States
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Law; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00221157
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 184 pp
• Files: TRIS, USDOT
• Created Date: Feb 12 1971 12:00AM