Role of Day-to-Day Learning in Achieving Equilibrium After a Major Network Change: Application to New Jersey Turnpike Toll Road

This paper presents an experimental dynamic traffic assignment framework that incorporates a Bayesian-Stochastic learning Automata model previously developed by Yanmaz-Tuzel and Ozbay to study day-to-day updating mechanism of travelers’ learning and adaptation to major changes in transportation networks. The main objective of this paper is to examine the day-to-day evolution of travel patterns in a traffic network when major disturbances are introduced into the transportation system. The dynamic traffic flow evolution and network-level interactions of driver departure time and route choice decisions are captured within the traffic flow simulator. The proposed integrated learning and dynamic traffic assignment framework is tested using the New Jersey Turnpike (NJTPK) network. The case study investigates the impacts of the addition of a new interchange (15X) on the Eastern Spur on day-to-day departure-time and route choice behavior of NJTPK travelers, and the impacts of toll structure change on day-to-day departure-time behavior of the travelers. The calibration and validation results have shown that the proposed framework that integrates day-to-day learning with dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) can successfully capture day-to-day update of traffic flow after the imposed disruptions. The sensitivity analysis confirmed that proposed day-to-day learning framework is a crucial component of the DTA, particularly while investigating the traveler behavior during a transient period after a major disruption. Ignoring the impacts of travel experiences, and travelers’ learning behavior on the evolution of traffic conditions result in lower prediction capabilities, and failure to capture the day-to-day evolution of travel trends.

• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Yanmaz-Tuzel, Ozlem
  • Ozbay, Kaan
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2011-1-23 to 2011-1-27
• Date: 2011

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: DVD
• Features: Figures; Maps; References;
• Pagination: 24p
• Monograph Title: TRB 90th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Dynamic traffic assignment; Learning; Route choice; Toll roads; Traffic equilibrium; Traffic flow; Traffic simulation; Travel patterns
• Identifier Terms: New Jersey Turnpike
• Uncontrolled Terms: Traffic networks
• Geographic Terms: New Jersey
• Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01340620
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 11-2720
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: May 20 2011 7:09AM