STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT DATA AS A BASIS FOR PLANNING SELECTIVE ENFORCEMENT-PHASE I REPORT

THE OBJECTIVE OF THIS RESEARCH IS TO INVESTIGATE VARIOUS STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES WHICH COULD BE APPLIED TO ACCIDENT DATA AND COULD AID OPERATIONAL DECISION MAKING BY ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES. THE TECHNIQUES EMPLOYED MUST DETERMINE A STABLE ACCIDENT PATTERN AND EVALUATE THE SIGNIFICANCE OF ANY VARIATIONS FROM THIS PATTERN. THE REPORT DEALS WITH THE USE OF CONTROL CHARTS. IT IS PROPOSED THAT CONTROL CHARTS, WHICH ARE SUCCESSFULLY USED FOR QUALITY CONTROL IN INDUSTRY, BE USED TO CONTINUOUSLY EVALUATE ACCIDENT DATA FLUCTUATIONS. THE REPORT CONTAINS A DISCUSSION OF THE UNDERLYING THEORY OF CONTROL CHARTS AND A DESCRIPTION OF THE METHODOLOGY PROPOSED FOR THEIR USE WITH ACCIDENT DATA. ONE OF THE MAJOR FINDINGS OF THE RESEARCH TO DATE IS THAT THE TRADITIONAL RELATIONSHIP OF TYPE I AND TYPE II ERRORS MAY NOT BE APPROPRIATE FOR USE WITH ACCIDENT DATA. IN MOST APPLICATIONS OF CONTROL CHART LOGIC, ONE ATTEMPTS TO MINIMIZE THE POSSIBILITY OF A TYPE I ERROR AND ALLOWS A SOMEWHAT HIGHER POSSIBILITY FOR TYPE II ERRORS. THE RESEARCHERS PROPOSE THAT AN INCREASE IN TYPE I SHOULD BE TOLERATED SO THAT A LOWER TYPE II ERROR CAN BE OBTAINED. THE THEORY BEHIND THEIR PROPOSAL IS THAT IT WOULD BE BETTER TO DETECT SPURIOUS CHANGES IN THE ACCIDENT PATTERNS THAN TO NOT DETECT LEGITIMATE CHANGES. /BPR/

• Corporate Authors:

  Itte, Calif Univ, Los Angeles

  ,    
• Authors:
  • Brenner, R
  • Fisher, G R
  • MOSHER, W W
• Publication Date: 1966

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Charts; Control; Crashes; Decision making; Highway safety; Statistical analysis; Traffic law enforcement
• Uncontrolled Terms: Data
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00219672
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Bureau of Public Roads /US
• Report/Paper Numbers: Hpr
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Feb 15 1994 12:00AM