Did the Price of Second-hand Ships Follow a Predictable Path Over the Period 1976-2008?

This paper uses historic data for the prices of second-hand tankers in order to predict a value for the following 12 months. This was then compared with the actual. Five non-linear forecast methods were tested in a preliminary test and the three more efficient were used. Technical analysis was carried out using the software NLTSA (2000) and MATLAB 5.3. The methods were tested for predicting accuracy inside the sample on the criterion to achieve deviations less than 1%. Then, forecasting outside the sample was attempted. The main results are that second-hand prices time series are not random as believed; they have a long memory and exhibit persistence. There are also out there non-periodic cycles in values, of 48 and 96 months, being more risky for the first nine years (total 22 years). Older analyses used random walk with heavy skewness and heavy kurtosis defeating, thus, their conclusions. They did not realize that this denied normality. The asset play among Greeks for 1992-2004 are also presented in the paper.

• Record URL:
  http://www.inderscience.com/search/index.php?action=record&rec_id=35501&prevQuery=&ps=10&m=or
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/17566517
• Authors:
  • Goulielmos, Alexander M
• Publication Date: 2010

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 383-410
• Serial:
  • International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics
  • Volume: 2
  • Issue Number: 4
  • Publisher: Inderscience Enterprises Limited
  • ISSN: 1756-6517
  • EISSN: 1756-6525
  • Serial URL: http://www.inderscience.com/jhome.php?jcode=ijstl

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Forecasting; Freight transportation; Prices; Ships; Software; Tanker shipping; Water transportation
• Uncontrolled Terms: Second hand
• Subject Areas: Freight Transportation; Marine Transportation; Operations and Traffic Management;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01321119
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Nov 29 2010 7:39AM