A CRITIQUE OF A STUDY BY HOOKER OF HIGHWAY PATROL EFFECT ON ACCIDENTS

A STATISTICAL STUDY BY HOOKER CONCLUDED THAT AN ADDITIONAL DOLLAR SPENT BY THE WYOMING HIGHWAY PATROL REDUCED ACCIDENT COST BY AN AVERAGE OF $12.83. A CRITICAL REVIEW OF THE STUDY SHOWS THAT SUCH A DEFINITE CONCLUSION APPEARS TO BE UNJUSTIFIED. FACTORS WHOSE POTENTIAL INFLUENCES ON TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS WERE ANALYZED BY HOOKER ARE: (1) NUMBER OF HOURS WORKED BY THE WYOMING HIGHWAY PATROL, (2) TOTAL SAFETY EXPENDITURES BY THE WYOMING HIGHWAY PATROL, (3) EXPENDITURES FOR DRIVER EDUCATION PROGRAMS, (4) FINES AND FORFEITURES INCURRED AS A CONSEQUENCE OF TRAFFIC VIOLATIONS, (5) EXPENDITURES BY MUNICIPALITIES FOR TRAFFIC POLICE, (6) TOTAL MAINTENANCE EXPENDITURES BY THE STATE HIGHWAY DEPARTMENT, (7) NUMBER OF MILES OF ROADS SURFACED AND GRADED, (8) EXPENDITURES BY THE STATE HIGHWAY DEPARTMENT FOR SNOW, ICE, AND SAND REMOVAL, AND FOR ICE CONTROL, (9) EXPENDITURES BY THE STATE HIGHWAY DEPARTMENT FOR TRAFFIC SERVICES, (10) EXPENDITURES BY THE STATE HIGHWAY DEPARTMENT FOR CONSTRUCTION OF MISCELLANEOUS FACILITIES, (11) MOTOR VEHICLE REGISTRATION, (12) MOTOR VEHICLE MILEAGE, AND (13) THE NUMBER OF DAYS DURING WHICH 0.10 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW AND/OR SLEET FELL DURING THE YEAR. SEVERAL HUNDRED REGRESSIONS WERE CALCULATED BY HOOKER BETWEEN THE NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS DURING THESE YEARS OF STUDY AND DIFFERENT COMBINATIONS OF THESE FACTORS, THE FACTORS WHOSE REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS SHOWED CONSISTENTLY THE SAME SIGN WERE SELECTED FOR USE AS VARIABLES IN THE REGRESSION EQUATION CALCULATION. THE TOTAL NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS WERE DEPENDENT VARIABLES. THE INDEPENDENT VARIABLES WERE: THE NUMBER OF HOURS WORKED BY HIGHWAY PATROL, NUMBER OF DAYS WITH MORE THAN 0.1 INCHES OF SNOW, AND EXPENDITURES FOR TRAFFIC SERVICES BY THE STATE HIGHWAY MAINTENANCE DIVISION. AN EXTREMELY HIGH CORRELATION COEFFICIENT WAS OBTAINED WHICH, IT IS EMPHASIZED, DOES NOT IMPLY A CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP. THEREFORE, THE REGRESSION SHOULD BE CHECKED BY MORE DIRECT METHODS BEFORE BASING IMPORTANT DECISIONS ON IT.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Vol 17, No 6, PP 7-9
• Authors:
  • Joksch, H C
• Publication Date: 1969-6

Media Info

• Serial:
  • TRAFFIC DIGEST AND REVIEW
  • Publisher: Northwestern University, Evanston

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Costs; Driver training; Expenditures; Fines (Penalties); Highway maintenance; Highways; Motor vehicles; Motorist aid systems; Police patrol; Police traffic services; Registrations; Regression analysis; Statistical analysis; Traffic crashes; Vehicle miles of travel
• Uncontrolled Terms: Violations
• Old TRIS Terms: Highway user services
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Finance; Highways; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00220523
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Sep 22 1994 12:00AM