PEAK FLOOD DISCHARGE CONFIDENCE LIMITS

CONFIDENCE LIMITS ALONG WITH A LOWER BOUND FOR THE CORRESPONDING LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE ARE DEVELOPED FOR EVALUATING THE EFFECT OF THE SAMPLING ERROR ON FLOOD RISK EVALUATION FROM BASE-FLOW FLOOD DATA. IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE NUMBER OF FLOOD PEAK OCCURRENCES IS POISSON-DISTRIBUTED WITH EXPONENTIALLY DISTRIBUTED MAGNITUDES. A CONFIDENCE REGION IS OBTAINED FOR THE POISSON AND EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS FROM THE ASYMPTOTIC JOINT DISTRIBUTION OF THEIR MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATORS. IT IS SHOWN HOW THIS REGION CAN BE USED TO OBTAIN CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR MEASURES OF RISK WHICH ARE CALCULATED USING THE ESTIMATES. LIMITS ARE EASY TO CALCULATE AND, IF DESIRED, A GRAPHICAL TECHNIQUE CAN BE USED. THE TECHNIQUE IS RESTRICTED, HOWEVER, TO SITUATIONS WHERE THE BASE-FLOW RECORD IS SUFFICIENTLY LONG SO THAT THE SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION FOR THE ESTIMATORS CAN BE APPROXIMATED BY A LIMITING NORMAL DISTRIBUTION. /ASCE/

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Vol 95, No HY1, PROC PAPER 6329, PP 161-173, 6 FIG, 2 TAB
• Authors:
  • Shane, R M
  • Lynn, W R
• Publication Date: 1969-1

Media Info

• Serial:
  • Journal of the Hydraulics Division
  • Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Estimates; Exponential distributions; Floods; Hazards; Poisson ratio; Risk assessment; Sampling; Weather forecasting
• Uncontrolled Terms: Flood peaks
• Old TRIS Terms: Discharge; Poissons ratio
• Subject Areas: Highways; Hydraulics and Hydrology; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00204203
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Apr 21 1994 12:00AM